Appendix A (Table A1). Ranking of juvenile Northern Goshawk survival models investigating time and covariate effects during the fledgling-dependency (weeks 1–7 after fledging) and post-independence (weeks 1–12 after fledging) periods in northern
Model |
K |
AICc |
|
wi |
Deviance |
Post-fledging survival |
|||||
S(prey + T + sex + mass) |
5 |
69.49 |
0.00 |
0.22 |
59.30 |
S(prey + T) |
3 |
70.45 |
1.03 |
0.13 |
64.40 |
S(rain + T + sex + mass) |
5 |
71.36 |
1.94 |
0.08 |
61.25 |
S(prey + T + brood) |
4 |
71.61 |
2.19 |
0.07 |
63.53 |
S(prey + T + mass) |
4 |
71.67 |
2.25 |
0.07 |
63.59 |
S(year + T) |
5 |
71.79 |
2.37 |
0.07 |
61.67 |
S(prey + T + hatch) |
4 |
71.97 |
2.55 |
0.06 |
63.89 |
S(prey + T + sex) |
4 |
72.07 |
2.65 |
0.06 |
63.99 |
S(year + T + mass) |
6 |
72.96 |
3.54 |
0.04 |
60.79 |
S(year + T + brood) |
6 |
72.99 |
3.57 |
0.04 |
60.82 |
S(T) |
2 |
73.01 |
3.59 |
0.04 |
68.99 |
S(year + T + sex) |
6 |
73.46 |
4.04 |
0.03 |
61.30 |
S(year + T + hatch) |
6 |
73.80 |
4.38 |
0.02 |
61.63 |
S(year × T) |
8 |
74.35 |
4.93 |
0.02 |
58.07 |
S(rain + T) |
3 |
74.81 |
5.39 |
0.01 |
68.76 |
S(rain + T + mass) |
4 |
75.43 |
6.02 |
0.01 |
67.36 |
S(rain + T + hatch) |
4 |
75.47 |
6.05 |
0.01 |
67.39 |
S(rain + T + sex) |
4 |
76.01 |
6.59 |
0.01 |
67.93 |
S(rain + T + brood) |
4 |
76.80 |
7.38 |
0.00 |
68.72 |
S(year + t) |
10 |
78.70 |
9.28 |
0.00 |
58.28 |
S(t) |
7 |
79.74 |
10.32 |
0.00 |
65.53 |
S(year) |
4 |
82.65 |
13.23 |
0.00 |
74.57 |
S(·) |
1 |
84.86 |
15.44 |
0.00 |
82.85 |
S(year × t)† |
28 |
113.12 |
43.70 |
0.00 |
53.85 |
Post-independence survival |
|||||
S(TT + sex + mass) |
5 |
122.85 |
0.00 |
0.57 |
112.76 |
S(prey + TT) |
4 |
125.21 |
2.36 |
0.17 |
117.15 |
S(TT + sex) |
4 |
127.04 |
4.20 |
0.07 |
118.98 |
S(TT) |
3 |
127.51 |
4.67 |
0.05 |
121.48 |
S(TT + hatch) |
4 |
128.29 |
5.45 |
0.04 |
120.23 |
S(year + TT) |
6 |
128.60 |
5.75 |
0.03 |
116.47 |
S(rain + TT) |
4 |
129.29 |
6.45 |
0.02 |
121.23 |
S(TT + mass) |
4 |
129.35 |
6.51 |
0.02 |
121.29 |
S(TT + brood) |
4 |
129.52 |
6.68 |
0.02 |
121.46 |
S(t) |
12 |
135.04 |
12.19 |
0.00 |
110.55 |
S(year + t) |
15 |
136.76 |
13.92 |
0.00 |
106.01 |
S(·) |
1 |
137.55 |
14.71 |
0.00 |
135.55 |
S(year) |
4 |
139.15 |
16.30 |
0.00 |
131.09 |
S(T) |
2 |
139.41 |
16.56 |
0.00 |
135.39 |
S(year + T) |
5 |
140.86 |
18.02 |
0.00 |
130.77 |
S(year × t)† |
48 |
191.00 |
68.16 |
0.00 |
87.29 |
Notes: Models are ranked by ascending
AICc; wi is the model weight and K is the number of estimable parameters. Factors in models include year, sex, weekly categorical time (t), a linear weekly time trend (T), prey abundance (prey), total precipitation (rain), natal brood size (brood), pre-fledging body mass (mass), territory hatch date (hatch), and a model with constant survival over time (·). Deviance is the difference in –2[loge(Likelihood)] of the current model and
–2[loge(Likelihood)] of the saturated model.
† Fully parameterized time-specific model.