Ecological Archives A016-018-A1

J. David Wiens, Barry R. Noon, and Richard T. Reynolds. 2006. Post-fledging survival of Northern Goshawks: the importance of prey abundance, weather, and dispersal. Ecological Applications 16:406–418.

Appendix A (Table A1). Ranking of juvenile Northern Goshawk survival models investigating time and covariate effects during the fledgling-dependency (weeks 1–7 after fledging) and post-independence (weeks 1–12 after fledging) periods in northern Arizona, 1998–2001.  Boldface denotes the best fitting time-specific models.

Model

K

AICc

AICc

wi

Deviance

Post-fledging survival

         

S(prey + T + sex + mass)

5

  69.49

  0.00

0.22

59.30

S(prey + T)

3

  70.45

  1.03

0.13

64.40

S(rain + T + sex + mass)

5

  71.36

  1.94

0.08

61.25

S(prey + T + brood)

4

  71.61

  2.19

0.07

63.53

S(prey + T + mass)

4

  71.67

  2.25

0.07

63.59

S(year + T)

5

  71.79

  2.37

0.07

61.67

S(prey + T + hatch)

4

  71.97

  2.55

0.06

63.89

S(prey + T + sex)

4

  72.07

  2.65

0.06

63.99

S(year + T + mass)

6

  72.96

  3.54

0.04

60.79

S(year + T + brood)

6

  72.99

  3.57

0.04

60.82

S(T)

2

  73.01

  3.59

0.04

68.99

S(year + T + sex)

6

  73.46

  4.04

0.03

61.30

S(year + T + hatch)

6

  73.80

  4.38

0.02

61.63

S(year × T)

8

  74.35

  4.93

0.02

58.07

S(rain + T)

3

  74.81

  5.39

0.01

68.76

S(rain + T + mass)

4

  75.43

  6.02

0.01

67.36

S(rain + T + hatch)

4

  75.47

  6.05

0.01

67.39

S(rain + T + sex)

4

  76.01

  6.59

0.01

67.93

S(rain + T + brood)

4

  76.80

  7.38

0.00

68.72

S(year + t)

10

  78.70

  9.28

0.00

58.28

S(t)

7

  79.74

10.32

0.00

65.53

S(year)

4

  82.65

13.23

0.00

74.57

S(·)

1

  84.86

15.44

0.00

82.85

S(year × t)†

28

113.12

43.70

0.00

53.85

Post-independence survival

         

S(TT + sex + mass)

5

122.85

  0.00

0.57

112.76

S(prey + TT)

4

125.21

  2.36

0.17

117.15

S(TT + sex)

4

127.04

  4.20

0.07

118.98

S(TT)

3

127.51

  4.67

0.05

121.48

S(TT + hatch)

4

128.29

  5.45

0.04

120.23

S(year + TT)

6

128.60

  5.75

0.03

116.47

S(rain + TT)

4

129.29

  6.45

0.02

121.23

S(TT + mass)

4

129.35

  6.51

0.02

121.29

S(TT + brood)

4

129.52

  6.68

0.02

121.46

S(t)

12

135.04

12.19

0.00

110.55

S(year + t)

15

136.76

13.92

0.00

106.01

S(·)

1

137.55

14.71

0.00

135.55

S(year)

4

139.15

16.30

0.00

131.09

S(T)

2

139.41

16.56

0.00

135.39

S(year + T)

5

140.86

18.02

0.00

130.77

S(year × t)†

48

191.00

68.16

0.00

  87.29

   Notes:  Models are ranked by ascending AICc; wi is the model weight and K is the number of estimable parameters.  Factors in models include year, sex, weekly categorical time (t), a linear weekly time trend (T), prey abundance (prey), total precipitation (rain), natal brood size (brood), pre-fledging body mass (mass), territory hatch date (hatch), and a model with constant survival over time (·).  Deviance is the difference in –2[loge(Likelihood)] of the current model and
–2[loge(Likelihood)] of the saturated model.

† Fully parameterized time-specific model.



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