Ecological Archives A013-015-A1

Michelle M. McClure, Elizabeth E. Holmes, Beth L. Sanderson, and Chris E. Jordan. 2003. A large-scale, multispecies status assessment: anadromous salmonids in the Columbia River Basin. Ecological Applications 13:964–989.

Appendix A. A summary of estimated population size, parameter estimates, risk of extinction and 90% decline in abundance, and needed improvements in lambda to achieve lambda = 1 and to reduce risk of decline or extinction in 50 years to below 5%, assuming that hatchery fish and wild fish reproduce at equal rates. A pdf of this appendix is also available.

 
ESU
  
Stock
  
Population Estimate (TS0)
Population Parameter Estimates     
Risk of Extinction  
Risk of 90% Decline  
  
2

(95% CI)
Prob
< 1.0
Prob
< 0.9
Needed increase (%)
50 years
(95% CI)
Prob VHER†
Needed increase (%)
50 years
(95% CI)
Prob VHRD‡
Needed increase (%)
Notes§
 
Lower Columbia R chinook Abernathy Cr fall-tule 3968 -0.27 0.02 0.76 (0.65, 0.89) 0.94 0.88 32 1 (0.48, 1) 0.88 16 1 (1, 1) 0.96 31  
  Coweman R fall-tule 2923 0.23 0.19 1.26 (0.84, 1.90) 0.14 0.07 0 0 (0, 0.12) 0.09 0 0 (0, 0.64) 0.18 0  
  Lewis R fall-bright 37665 -0.04 0.05 0.96 (0.78, 1.18) 0.62 0.29 4 0 (0, 0.36) 0.18 0 0.43 (0, 1) 0.62 5  
  Lewis EF fall-tule 853 -0.01 0.02 0.99 (0.85, 1.14) 0.53 0.18 1 0 (0, 0.27) 0.21 0 0.06 (0, 1) 0.48 1  
  Sandy R fall-late 3907 0.00 0.02 1 (0.83, 1.19) 0.50 0.22 0 0 (0, 0.02) 0.21 0 0.02 (0, 1) 0.48 0  
  Sandy R fall-tule 410 -0.22 0.10 0.81 (0.24, 2.67) 0.75 0.62 23 0.99 (0, 1) 0.70 19 1 (0, 1) 0.79 28  
                               
Upper Columbia R chinook ESU Level 4037 -0.18 0.13 0.84 (0.61, 1.15) 0.97 0.78 19 0.66 (0, 1) 0.80 12 1 (0, 1) 0.88 25 t, d
  Entiat R spr 188 -0.22 0.05 0.8 (0.66, 0.98) 0.92 0.81 25 1 (0.08, 1) 0.89 19 1 (0.84, 1) 0.94 26 d
  Methow R spr 591 -0.17 0.28 0.85 (0.54, 1.33) 0.78 0.61 18 0.79 (0, 1) 0.70 18 0.95 (0, 1) 0.83 28 t, d
  Wenatchee R spr 1798 -0.18 0.09 0.83 (0.65, 1.07) 0.87 0.71 20 0.82 (0, 1) 0.72 11 1 (0.05, 1) 0.89 23 t, d
                               
Snake R spr/sum chinook ESU Level 69049 -0.22 0.07 0.81 (0.65, 1.01) 1.00 0.94 23 0.46 (0, 1) 0.73 7 1 (0.56, 1) 0.93 27  
  Bear Valley/Elk Cr 713 0.03 0.16 1.03 (0.75, 1.42) 0.41 0.20 0 0.01 (0, 0.95) 0.27 0 0.09 (0, 1) 0.46 2  
  Big Sheep Cr spr NA -0.15 0.88 0.86 (0.43, 1.72) 0.71 0.55 16 NA NA NA 0.79 (0, 1) 0.79 39  
  Camas Cr spr NA -0.14 0.12 0.87 (0.63, 1.20) 0.78 0.58 15 NA NA NA 0.97 (0, 1) 0.82 20  
  Cape Horn Cr spr NA 0.02 0.22 1.02 (0.66, 1.58) 0.45 0.25 0 NA NA NA 0.16 (0, 1) 0.51 5 d
  Imnaha R spr 1092 -0.12 0.05 0.89 (0.75, 1.06) 0.84 0.55 12 0.28 (0, 1) 0.56 3 0.99 (0.01, 1) 0.83 14  
  Johnson Cr sum 432 0.01 0.05 1.01 (0.84, 1.21) 0.45 0.17 0 0 (0, 0.55) 0.23 0 0.05 (0, 1) 0.44 0  
  Lookingglass Cr spr NA -0.47 0.27 0.63 (0.43, 0.92) 0.97 0.93 56 NA NA NA 1 (0.98, 1) 0.98 73 t
  Marsh Cr spr 286 0.01 0.15 1.01 (0.74, 1.37) 0.47 0.24 0 0.03 (0, 0.99) 0.35 0 0.17 (0, 1) 0.51 4  
  Minam R spr 554 -0.07 0.24 0.94 (0.63, 1.39) 0.63 0.40 6 0.28 (0, 1) 0.51 6 0.61 (0, 1) 0.69 15 t
  Minam R Up spr NA -0.06 0.09 0.94 (0.74, 1.19) 0.67 0.35 6 NA NA NA 0.63 (0, 1) 0.69 9  
  Poverty Cr 958 0.00 0.10 1 (0.77, 1.28) 0.50 0.23 0 0 (0, 0.95) 0.28 0 0.18 (0, 1) 0.53 4  
  Sulphur Cr spr 200 0.03 0.47 1.03 (0.60, 1.77) 0.43 0.26 0 0.17 (0, 1) 0.43 7 0.21 (0, 1) 0.51 9  
                               
Snake R fall chinook ESU Level 2600 -0.12 0.02 0.88 (0.76, 1.03) 1.00 0.67 14 0.04 (0, 1) 0.37 0 1 (0.05, 1) 0.85 12  
                               
Upper Willamette R chinook ESU Level 36081 -0.47 0.09 0.62 (0.48, 0.81) 1.00 1.00 61 1 (0.93, 1) 1.00 41 1 (1, 1) 0.99 65  
  McKenzie R abv Leaburg 8764 -0.14 0.24 0.87 (0.57, 1.31) 0.76 0.57 15 0.36 (0, 1) 0.54 8 0.92 (0, 1) 0.81 24  
                               
Columbia R chum Grays R WF NA 0.21 0.23 1.23 (0.82, 1.85) 0.15 0.07 0 NA NA NA 0 (0, 0.74) 0.20 0  
  Grays R mouth to head NA -0.03 0.10 0.97 (0.74, 1.27) 0.58 0.30 3 NA NA NA 0.38 (0, 1) 0.61 7  
  Hardy Cr NA 0.04 0.06 1.04 (0.86, 1.25) 0.34 0.13 0 NA NA NA 0.01 (0, 0.93) 0.35 0  
  Crazy J NA 0.14 0.03 1.15 (0.99, 1.33) 0.11 0.05 0 NA NA NA 0 (0, 0) 0.13 0  
  Hamilton Cr NA -0.08 0.05 0.92 (0.76, 1.12) 0.74 0.40 9 NA NA NA 0.86 (0, 1) 0.75 10  
  Hamilton springs NA 0.09 0.51 1.1 (0.62, 1.93) 0.33 0.19 0 NA NA NA 0.1 (0, 1) 0.41 3 t, a
                               
Lower Columbia R steelhead ESU Level NA -0.26 0.00 0.77 (0.75, 0.79) 1.00 1.00 30 NA NA NA 1 (1, 1) 0.98 25 l
  Clackamas R sum 7185 -0.33 0.09 0.72 (0.57, 0.92) 0.96 0.91 39 1 (0.19, 1) 0.91 25 1 (1, 1) 0.97 43 t
  Clackamas R win 3470 -0.36 0.06 0.69 (0.57, 0.85) 0.97 0.93 45 1 (0.92, 1) 0.94 30 1 (1, 1) 0.98 46 t
  Green R win 450 -0.15 0.25 0.86 (0.24, 3.08) 0.67 0.52 16 0.73 (0, 1) 0.62 39 0.93 (0, 1) 0.73 25 t
  Kalama R sum 18673 -0.36 0.07 0.7 (0.54, 0.90) 0.95 0.91 43 1 (0.46, 1) 0.89 25 1 (1, 1) 0.97 46 d
  Kalama R win 6844 -0.13 0.01 0.87 (0.78, 0.98) 0.87 0.64 15 0 (0, 0.99) 0.41 0 1 (0.52, 1) 0.88 13  
  Lewis R EF win NA -0.17 0.02 0.84 (0.59, 1.21) 0.76 0.61 19 NA NA NA 1 (0, 1) 0.79 18  
  Sandy R win 8064 -0.19 0.03 0.83 (0.7, 0.98) 0.90 0.77 20 0.64 (0, 1) 0.66 5 1 (0.79, 1) 0.92 21  
  Toutle R SF win NA -0.10 0.00 0.91 (0.88 , 0.93) 0.79 0.43 10 NA NA NA 1 (1, 1) 0.80 6 t
  wind R sum 1218 -0.06 0.00 0.95 (0.83, 1.08) 0.65 0.33 5 0 (0, 0.19) 0.34 0 0.91 (0, 1) 0.62 3  
                               
Middle Columbia R steelhead ESU Level NA -0.11 0.11 0.89 (0.68, 1.18) 0.90 0.54 12 NA NA NA 0.92 (0, 1) 0.80 16  
  Beaver Cr NF sum NA -0.06 0.17 0.95 (0.70, 1.28) 0.63 0.36 5 NA NA NA 0.57 (0, 1) 0.68 12  
  Deschutes R sum 9751 -0.16 0.10 0.85 (0.67, 1.07) 0.86 0.67 18 0.38 (0, 1) 0.58 6 1 (0.09, 1) 0.89 22  
  Eightmile Cr win NA ,0.08 1.62 0.92 (0.17, 4.96) 0.57 0.43 9 NA NA NA 0.57 (0, 1) 0.66 39  
  Fifteen Mile Cr win NA ,0.01 0.03 0.99 (0.82, 1.18) 0.54 0.22 1 NA NA NA 0.11 (0, 1) 0.52 2  
  Mill Cr sum NA ,0.03 0.00 0.97 (0.92, 1.03) 0.69 0.17 3 NA NA NA 0.02 (0, 1) 0.50 0 l
  Ramsey Cr win NA 0.06 1.65 1.06 (0.19, 5.75) 0.44 0.30 0 NA NA NA 0.29 (0, 1) 0.53 22  
  Umatilla R sum 10062 -0.04 0.03 0.96 (0.85, 1.10) 0.65 0.21 4 0 (0, 0.02) 0.14 0 0.34 (0, 1) 0.60 4 t, a, d
  Warm Springs Nfh sum 729 -0.06 0.08 0.94 (0.75, 1.18) 0.67 0.35 6 0.06 (0, 1) 0.41 0 0.63 (0, 1) 0.69 9  
                               
Upper Columbia R steelhead ESU Level 8678 -0.37 0.11 0.69 (0.48, 1) 1.00 0.99 45 1 (0.18, 1) 0.99 32 1 (0.92, 1) 0.96 50  
                               
Snake R steelhead ESU Level 377945 -0.32 0.02 0.73 (0.66, 0.8) 1.00 1.00 37 1 (0.37, 1) 0.99 10 1 (1, 1) 0.99 35 t
  Butte Cr sum A NA 0.06 0.65 1.07 (0.59, 1.94) 0.39 0.23 0 NA NA NA 0.17 (0, 1) 0.47 9 a
  Camp Cr sum A run NA -0.03 0.21 0.97 (0.69, 1.37) 0.56 0.32 3 NA NA NA 0.4 (0, 1) 0.62 10  
  Crow Cr sum A NA 0.03 0.25 1.03 (0.71, 1.49) 0.42 0.22 0 NA NA NA 0.15 (0, 1) 0.49 5  
  Devils Run Cr sum A NA 0.05 0.25 1.05 (0.73, 1.53) 0.37 0.19 0 NA NA NA 0.08 (0, 1) 0.43 2 t
  Fly Cr sum A NA -0.04 0.27 0.97 (0.66, 1.42) 0.57 0.34 3 NA NA NA 0.44 (0, 1) 0.63 12 t
  Mccoy Cr sum A NA 0.05 0.08 1.05 (0.85, 1.30) 0.33 0.13 0 NA NA NA 0.01 (0, 0.98) 0.35 0  
  Meadow Cr sum A NA -0.04 0.12 0.96 (0.75, 1.24) 0.59 0.30 4 NA NA NA 0.42 (0, 1) 0.62 8  
  Peavine Cr sum A NA 0.07 0.29 1.07 (0.70, 1.64) 0.35 0.19 0 NA NA NA 0.07 (0, 1) 0.41 2  
  Phillips Cr sum A NA -0.05 0.09 0.95 (0.76, 1.19) 0.65 0.33 5 NA NA NA 0.55 (0, 1) 0.67 9  
  Snake R A 333995 -0.32 0.01 0.73 (0.67, 0.79) 0.99 0.98 37 1 (0.63, 1) 0.91 9 1 (1, 1) 0.99 35 t
  Snake R B 86029 ,0.30 0.04 0.74 (0.63, 0.86) 0.97 0.93 35 0.99 (0.04, 1) 0.86 14 1 (1, 1) 0.98 36 t
  Summit Cr sum A NA 0.03 0.36 1.03 (0.66, 1.60) 0.43 0.24 0 NA NA NA 0.19 (0, 1) 0.50 7  
  Swamp Cr sum A NA 0.01 0.11 1.01 (0.79, 1.30) 0.45 0.20 0 NA NA NA 0.11 (0, 1) 0.48 3  
                               
Upper Willamette R steelhead ESU Level 11340 -0.15 0.08 0.86 (0.65, 1.13) 0.97 0.71 16 0.2 (0, 1) 0.56 4 1 (0, 1) 0.85 19  
  Calapooia R late-win 196 -0.07 0.21 0.93 (0.61, 1.43) 0.63 0.41 8 0.4 (0, 1) 0.57 21 0.64 (0, 1) 0.68 14  
  Mollala R late-win 754 -0.29 0.12 0.75 (0.58, 0.96) 0.95 0.87 33 1 (0.31, 1) 0.91 27 1 (0.79, 1) 0.96 39  
  N Santiam R late-win 2524 -0.16 0.05 0.85 (0.72, 1.01) 0.90 0.71 18 0.61 (0, 1) 0.67 7 1 (0.27, 1) 0.92 19 t
  S Santiam R win 1061 -0.08 0.01 0.93 (0.85, 1.01) 0.86 0.31 8 0 (0, 0.56) 0.26 0 0.97 (0.01, 1) 0.83 7 t
  S Santiam R late-win 1202 -0.22 0.09 0.8 (0.64, 1) 0.92 0.81 25 0.98 (0.01, 1) 0.84 17 1 (0.53, 1) 0.94 28  
                               
WA Coast Chinook Queets R fall 16334 0.03 0.04 1.03 (0.79, 1.36) 0.39 0.20 0 0 (0, 0.04) 0.17 0 0 (0, 1) 0.41 0 t

   Notes: Only estimates for stocks and ESUs that had estimates of the hatchery proportion are shown. Estimates are provided for individual stocks and ESUs (in bold).

†1 Very high extinction risk, probability that extinction in 50 years is over 25%.

‡ Very high risk of decline, probability that risk of 90% decline in 50 years is over 25%

§ Tests for underlying assumptions were made on the running sums of wild-spawner-only counts where possible; otherwise total mixed counts were used. The codes designate tests that failed at (P < 0.05). Note that a number of the "fails" are false fails since the P value was not adjusted for multiple tests being conducted. If P value is adjusted (P < 0.001) to reduce the probability of a false positive to less than 5%, none of the time series fail the diagnostic tests. Definitions of codes: (a) Significant first-order autocorrelation in ln(Rt+1/Rt) was found. (d) A model with depensatory density dependence fit the data significantly better than a model with no density dependence. This indicates that the risk estimates are pessimistic. (t) A model with a trend in fit the data significantly better than the model with no trend. This indicates that the risk estimates are optimistic. (l) The variance vs. plot showed significant nonlinearity (R2 < 0.7) indicating an underestimate of 2.

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