Model; #priors# mu ~ dflat() beta0 ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6) beta1 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6) beta2 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6) beta3 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6) beta4 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6) beta5 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6) eta ~ dnorm( 0.0,1.0E-6) for(k in 1: ncounts) { noise[k] ~ dnorm(0.0, taunoise) log(lambda[k]) <- mu + rte[route[k]] + obs[obser[k]] + eta*firstyr[k] + yeareffect[year[k]] + beta0*(year[k]-fixedyear) + beta1*X1[k] + beta2*X2[k] + beta3*X3[k] + beta4*X4[k] + beta5*X1[k]*X2[k] + noise[k] count[k] ~ dpois(lambda[k]) zfcount[k] ~ dpois(lambda[k]) err[k] <- pow(count[k]-lambda[k],2)/lambda[k] ferr[k] <- pow(zfcount[k]-lambda[k],2)/lambda[k] eps[k] <- count[k]-lambda[k] resid[k] <- taunoise*(count[k]-lambda[k]) aresid[k] <- abs(count[k]-lambda[k]) } gof <- sum(err[1:ncounts]) fgof <- sum(ferr[1:ncounts]) diffgof <- gof-fgof posdiff <- step(diffgof) taunoise ~ dgamma(0.001, 0.001) sdnoise <- 1/sqrt(taunoise) largest <- ranked(aresid[],ncounts) largerthan <- step(largest-aresid[3]) #### route effects ###### rte[1:nroutes] ~ car.normal(adj[], weights[], num[], taurte) for(j in 1:sumNumNeigh) { weights[j] <- 1 } taurte ~ dgamma(0.5, 0.0005) sdrte <- 1/sqrt(taurte) #### observer effects ###### for( i in 1:nobservers) { obs[i] ~ dnorm(0.0, tauobs) } tauobs ~ dgamma(0.001, 0.001) sdobs <- 1/sqrt(tauobs) #### year effects #### for(y in 1:nyears) { yeareffect[y] ~ dnorm(0.0, tauyear) yearplustrend[y] <- yeareffect[y] + beta0*(y-fixedyear) } tauyear~dgamma(0.001, 0.001) sdyears <- 1/sqrt(tauyear) #### summary statistics #### for( t in 1:nyears) { n[t] <- exp(beta0*(t-fixedyear)+yeareffect[t]) } }