Ecological Archives A022-014-A3

Andrea S. Downing, Egbert H. van Nes, Jan H. Janse, Frans Witte, Ilse J. M. Cornelissen, Marten Scheffer, and Wolf M. Mooij. 2012. Collapse and reorganization of a food web of Mwanza Gulf, Lake Victoria. Eological Applications 22:229–239.

Appendix C. The equations used to solve the linear dynamics as well as the biomass and relative growth rate values for each trophic group in each year.

For each trophic group, we fitted a straight line between the relative biomasses of the three different years, representing a linear trend of changes in relative growth rate. We did this analytically, using MAPLE, first deriving (C.1) then solving the straight-line equation (C.2). We thus obtained changes in relative growth rate for each trophic group, from which we calculated relative biomasses of the different trophic groups in between the three modeled years.

Equations:

(C.1)
(C.2)
(C.3)
(C.4)
(C.5)
(C.6)

Parameters:

t = time (years)
a = intercept
b = slope
x0 = relative biomass at time t = 0
x1 = relative biomass at time t = 10
x2 = relative biomass at time t = 28
t1 = 10 years (1987)
t2 = 28 years (2005)

Linear dynamics obtained analytically, using C.6:

Time Pisc ZooBenth PhytDet Prim Detritus
0 7 16.8 57 14.5 4.6
10 22.4 7.5 56.8 11.1 2.2
28 6.3 19.2 55.7 15.7 3
Slope -0.013341995 0.009490729 -5.24972E-05 0.003284452 0.00649933
Intercept 0.183025057 -0.128101234 -8.90084E-05 -0.043142616 -0.10625658

TABLE C1. Yearly change in growth rate of each trophic group to obtain changes in relative biomass in Table C2.

Year Time
step
Pisc ZoopPrawn PhytDet Prim Detritus
1977 0 0.18303 -0.12810 -0.00009 -0.04314 -0.10626
1978 1 0.17635 -0.12336 -0.00012 -0.04150 -0.10301
1979 2 0.16301 -0.11387 -0.00017 -0.03822 -0.09651
1980 3 0.14967 -0.10437 -0.00022 -0.03493 -0.09001
1981 4 0.13633 -0.09488 -0.00027 -0.03165 -0.08351
1982 5 0.12299 -0.08539 -0.00033 -0.02836 -0.07701
1983 6 0.10964 -0.07590 -0.00038 -0.02508 -0.07051
1984 7 0.09630 -0.06641 -0.00043 -0.02179 -0.06401
1985 8 0.08296 -0.05692 -0.00048 -0.01851 -0.05751
1986 9 0.06962 -0.04743 -0.00054 -0.01522 -0.05101
1987 10 0.05628 -0.03794 -0.00059 -0.01194 -0.04451
1988 11 0.04293 -0.02845 -0.00064 -0.00866 -0.03801
1989 12 0.02959 -0.01896 -0.00069 -0.00537 -0.03151
1990 13 0.01625 -0.00947 -0.00075 -0.00209 -0.02501
1991 14 0.00291 0.00002 -0.00080 0.00120 -0.01852
1992 15 -0.01043 0.00951 -0.00085 0.00448 -0.01202
1993 16 -0.02378 0.01901 -0.00090 0.00777 -0.00552
1994 17 -0.03712 0.02850 -0.00096 0.01105 0.00098
1995 18 -0.05046 0.03799 -0.00101 0.01434 0.00748
1996 19 -0.06380 0.04748 -0.00106 0.01762 0.01398
1997 20 -0.07714 0.05697 -0.00111 0.02090 0.02048
1998 21 -0.09049 0.06646 -0.00117 0.02419 0.02698
1999 22 -0.10383 0.07595 -0.00122 0.02747 0.03348
2000 23 -0.11717 0.08544 -0.00127 0.03076 0.03998
2001 24 -0.13051 0.09493 -0.00132 0.03404 0.04648
2002 25 -0.14385 0.10442 -0.00138 0.03733 0.05298
2003 26 -0.15720 0.11391 -0.00143 0.04061 0.05948
2004 27 -0.17054 0.12340 -0.00148 0.04390 0.06598
2005 28 -0.18388 0.13289 -0.00153 0.04718 0.07248

TABLE C2. Relative biomass of each trophic group each year between those measured (bold).

Year Time
step
Pisc ZoopPrawn PhytDet Prim Detritus
1977 0 7 16.8 57 14.5 4.6
1978 1 8.35 14.85 56.99 13.91 4.15
1979 2 9.83 13.25 56.98 13.39 3.77
1980 3 11.42 11.94 56.97 12.93 3.44
1981 4 13.08 10.86 56.96 12.53 3.17
1982 5 14.79 9.97 56.94 12.18 2.93
1983 6 16.51 9.24 56.92 11.87 2.73
1984 7 18.18 8.65 56.89 11.62 2.56
1985 8 19.75 8.17 56.86 11.41 2.42
1986 9 21.17 7.79 56.83 11.23 2.30
1987 10 22.40 7.50 56.80 11.10 2.20
1988 11 23.38 7.29 56.76 11.00 2.12
1989 12 24.08 7.15 56.72 10.95 2.05
1990 13 24.48 7.09 56.68 10.92 2.00
1991 14 24.55 7.09 56.64 10.94 1.96
1992 15 24.30 7.15 56.59 10.98 1.94
1993 16 23.73 7.29 56.54 11.07 1.93
1994 17 22.86 7.50 56.48 11.19 1.93
1995 18 21.74 7.79 56.43 11.36 1.95
1996 19 20.39 8.17 56.37 11.56 1.97
1997 20 18.88 8.65 56.30 11.80 2.02
1998 21 17.25 9.24 56.24 12.09 2.07
1999 22 15.54 9.97 56.17 12.43 2.14
2000 23 13.83 10.86 56.10 12.81 2.23
2001 24 12.13 11.94 56.02 13.26 2.33
2002 25 10.51 13.26 55.95 13.76 2.46
2003 26 8.98 14.86 55.87 14.33 2.61
2004 27 7.57 16.81 55.79 14.98 2.79
2005 28 6.30 19.20 55.70 15.70 3.00
 
[Back to A022-014]