Appendix A. Mean and 95 % credibility intervals for the posterior distributions of model parameters.
Table A1. Single model.
elk-115
elk-163
elk-287
elk-363
a
1.066 (0.919, 1.225)
1.233 (1.047, 1.437)
1.154 (0.978, 1.350)
1.256 (1.091, 1.431)
b
0.692 (0.620, 0.767)
0.499 (0.444, 0.558)
0.576 (0.512, 0.641)
0.627 (0.566, 0.688)
3.198 (2.857, 3.564)
3.194 (2.798, 3.591)
2.115 (0.598, 5.138)
2.994 (2.104, 3.952)
0.261 (0.156, 0.363)
0.263 (0.147, 0.375)
0.089 (0.005, 0.200)
0.124 (0.019, 0.229)
Table A2. Double model.
elk-115
elk-163
elk-287
elk-363
a1
1.462 (1.089, 1.990)
7.990 (4.558, 13.530)
5.255 (3.343, 9.251)
3.873 (2.560, 5.711)
a2
1.028 (0.821, 1.245)
0.672 (0.445, 0.916)
0.654 (0.431, 0.895)
0.913 (0.715, 1.129)
b1
1.430 (1.011, 1.942)
1.052 (0.838, 1.303)
1.215 (0.992, 1.494)
1.223 (0.972, 1.501)
b2
0.543 (0.452, 0.640)
0.590 (0.469, 0.738)
0.615 (0.489, 0.767)
0.578 (0.485, 0.679)
1
3.171 (-3.131, 3.138)
3.176 (-3.112, 3.105)
2.710 (-3.068, 3.089)
2.966 (2.701, 3.129)
2
0.638 (-2.926, 2.947)
3.141 (-3.127, 3.129)
0.277 (-0.519, 1.284)
6.055 (-1.264, 0.751)
1
0.564 (0.391, 0.705)
0.179 (0.010, 0.408)
0.283 (0.092, 0.442)
0.477 (0.314, 0.614)
2
0.077 (0.003, 0.216)
0.341 (0.074, 0.550)
0.300 (0.047, 0.513)
0.205 (0.027, 0.369)
Table A3. Double with covariates.
elk-163
elk-287
elk3-63
a1
4.802 (2.477, 8.434)
3.739 (2.893, 4.719)
2.141 (1.561, 2.788)
a2
0.292 (0.018, 0.750)
0.106 (0.019, 0.350)
0.066 (0.004, 0.200)
b1
0.892 (0.691, 1.110)
1.073 (0.924, 1.232)
0.844 (0.706, 0.980)
b2
0.962 (0.532, 1.854)
1.338 (0.757, 1.931)
1.732 (1.134, 2.736)
1
6.256 (-2.978, 2.986)
-0.013 (-3.007, 2.950)
1.645 (-2.981, 2.986)
2
2.511 (-2.987, 2.951)
-0.022 (-2.992, 2.952)
6.142 (-2.966, 2.990)
1
0.018 (0.000, 0.066)
0.017 (0.000, 0.061)
0.013 (0.000, 0.047)
2
0.037 (0.001, 0.138)
0.606 (0.403, 0.761)
0.359 (0.068, 0.633)
v1
0.122 (-19.360, 19.990)
-7.717 (-22.390, 2.075)
8.588 (-0.694, 22.920)
v2
4.161 (1.402, 12.610)
5.825 (3.615, 8.969)
3.346 (1.568, 5.730)
v3
-7.595 (-23.270, 2.222)
-0.174 (-13.840, 5.243)
9.275 (1.318, 23.140)
v4
-0.053 (-19.420, 19.400)
1.538 (-0.853, 4.206)
-0.211 (-19.670, 19.310)
v5
-5.975 (-21.040, 3.268)
0.088 (-5.404, 3.617)
1.337 (-4.349, 14.250)
v6
-0.138 (-19.800, 19.740)
-0.053 (-19.930, 19.580)
0.230 (-19.510, 20.000)
v7
1.194 (-0.395, 2.491)
2.136 (1.205, 3.094)
3.206 (2.130, 4.618)
v8
-0.923 (-13.130, 2.392)
0.160 (-2.650, 3.039)
2.358 (0.305, 4.641)
v9
-1.178 (-15.030, 4.273)
-0.530 (-3.285, 2.088)
8.758 (1.410, 23.330)
v10
0.127 (-19.820, 18.970)
9.797 (1.766, 23.560)
2.607 (-1.013, 9.293)
Table A4. Switch model.
elk-115
elk-163
elk-287
elk-363
a1
1.262 (1.063, 1.495)
8.314 (4.433, 14.990)
3.606 (2.853, 4.536)
3.672 (1.998, 6.522)
a2
1.164 (0.973, 1.364)
0.689 (0.168, 0.993)
0.154 (0.031, 0.413)
0.881 (0.496, 1.161)
b1
0.442 (0.340, 0.560)
1.064 (0.844, 1.321)
1.051 (0.907, 1.207)
1.193 (0.838, 1.592)
b2
1.306 (1.081, 1.717)
0.602 (0.462, 1.042)
1.167 (0.692, 1.729)
0.588 (0.464, 0.758)
1
2.999 (-3.046, 3.047)
3.205 (-3.127, 3.125)
2.620 (2.059, 3.196)
2.971 (2.622, 3.247)
2
3.160 (-3.133, 3.135)
3.136 (-3.115, 3.117)
0.118 (0.005, 0.370)
5.962 (0.036, 6.247)
1
0.089 (0.004, 0.245)
0.313 (0.119, 0.482)
0.226 (0.101, 0.347)
0.427 (0.231, 0.619)
2
0.408 (0.267, 0.589)
0.183 (0.011, 0.422)
0.582 (0.383, 0.741)
0.217 (0.019, 0.506)
q1,2
0.086 (0.023, 0.249)
0.173 (0.036, 0.575)
0.349 (0.151, 0.557)
0.329 (0.148, 0.554)
q2,1
0.136 (0.036, 0.288)
0.142 (0.041, 0.294)
0.096 (0.045, 0.158)
0.295 (0.097, 0.526)
Table A5. Switch with covariates.
elk-115
elk-287
elk-363
a1
1.544 (1.311, 1.811)
3.668 (2.846, 4.679)
2.151 (1.616, 2.803)
a2
0.038 (0.005, 0.093)
0.248 (0.049, 0.674)
0.129 (0.010, 0.495)
b1
0.887 (0.779, 1.000)
1.064 (0.911, 1.245)
0.842 (0.711, 0.976)
b2
1.786 (1.273, 2.531)
0.979 (0.544, 1.545)
1.466 (0.743, 2.325)
1
-1.462 (-3.129, 3.130)
2.312 (-3.030, 3.056)
2.378 (-3.092, 3.121)
2
0.942 (-1.873, 2.583)
0.036 (-0.263, 0.389)
-0.461 (-1.057, 0.068)
1
0.311 (0.207, 0.411)
0.232 (0.106, 0.354)
0.226 (0.113, 0.349)
2
0.291 (0.017, 0.619)
0.538 (0.299, 0.730)
0.459 (0.157, 0.705)
1
3.070 (2.282, 4.026)
2.425 (1.690, 3.409)
2.292 (1.405, 3.416)
2
-0.531 (-6.742, 5.587)
-2.977 (-8.109, 2.076)
-1.140 (-6.019, 3.655)
m2,1
-0.041 (-6.236, 6.155)
-0.121 (-6.096, 6.056)
-0.191 (-6.174, 5.921)
m2,2
-0.281 (-5.308, 4.987)
0.168 (-3.119, 2.492)
0.042 (-3.520, 3.577)
m2,3
0.764 (-5.338, 6.792)
-0.338 (-6.399, 5.713)
1.626 (-4.367, 7.318)
m2,4
-3.210 (-7.945, 1.420)
1.276 (-0.363, 2.959)
1.302 (-0.519, 3.508)
m2,5
4.025 (-0.927, 9.281)
2.139 (-1.506, 5.685)
3.151 (-0.383, 6.941)
m2,6
-0.015 (-6.209, 6.230)
0.054 (-6.171, 6.190)
-0.135 (-6.086, 5.961)
m2,7
2.705 (-0.651, 6.312)
0.283 (-4.908, 5.502)
5.062 (0.277, 9.706)
m2,8
-0.342 (-6.480, 5.935)
-1.060 (-7.121, 4.852)
-0.331 (-6.104, 5.724)
m2,9
0.654 (-5.753, 6.709)
-1.383 (-7.147, 4.443)
-0.235 (-5.995, 5.706)
m2,10
-0.712 (-4.079, 2.544)
-0.248 (-1.928, 1.359)
-0.950 (-3.217, 1.268)
Table A6. Triple switch.
elk-115
elk-163
elk-287
elk-363
a1
24.06 (12.52, 37.09)
12.43 (5.70, 25.44)
19.41 (9.72, 31.22)
11.05 (3.84, 23.56)
a2
1.354 (1.124, 1.632)
3.292 (0.858, 11.530)
3.538 (2.589, 4.667)
3.582 (2.098, 5.736)
a3
0.073 (0.007, 0.251)
0.239 (0.012, 0.827)
0.165 (0.057, 0.346)
0.432 (0.071, 0.793)
b1
0.895 (0.851, 1.000)
1.150 (0.889, 1.441)
1.406 (1.131, 1.670)
0.519 (0.324, 0.734)
b2
1.167 (1.014, 1.341)
0.947 (0.529, 2.386)
1.458 (1.158, 1.926)
1.203 (0.968, 1.475)
b3
1.572 (0.923, 2.407)
1.150 (0.501, 1.960)
1.120 (0.772, 1.515)
0.933 (0.642, 1.593)
1
4.156 (-3.037, 3.005)
-0.750 (-3.125, 3.123)
2.148 (-3.011, 3.006)
1.126 (-2.806, 2.850)
2
3.117 (-3.114, 3.138)
0.101 (-3.089, 3.093)
2.753 (2.241, 3.112)
3.056 (-3.136, 3.108)
3
1.080 (-1.523, 2.501)
0.243 (-3.121, 3.120)
0.067 (-0.201, 0.372)
5.721 (-1.754, 0.409)
1
0.148 (0.005, 0.405)
0.329 (0.111, 0.511)
0.129 (0.007, 0.328)
0.236 (0.011, 0.564)
2
0.349 (0.228, 0.464)
0.180 (0.006, 0.617)
0.318 (0.152, 0.478)
0.330 (0.160, 0.506)
3
0.316 (0.022, 0.642)
0.291 (0.018, 0.653)
0.561 (0.374, 0.719)
0.270 (0.035, 0.536)
q1,1
0.724 (0.480, 0.815)
0.839 (0.544, 0.904)
0.689 (0.543, 0.739)
0.870 (0.593, 0.955)
q1,2
0.041 (0.008, 0.054)
0.077 (0.001, 0.084)
0.044 (0.001, 0.057)
0.018 (0.001, 0.022)
q1,3
0.069 (0.002, 0.097)
0.241 (0.034, 0.331)
0.367 (0.190, 0.429)
0.042 (0.001, 0.039)
q2,1
0.094 (0.004, 0.131)
0.095 (0.009, 0.122)
0.053 (0.003, 0.074)
0.067 (0.000, 0.094)
q2,2
0.926 (0.847, 0.951)
0.603 (0.103, 0.762)
0.938 (0.801, 0.972)
0.769 (0.598, 0.822)
q2,3
0.328 (0.070, 0.411)
0.309 (0.015, 0.424)
0.044 (0.002, 0.062)
0.424 (0.063, 0.517)
q3,1
0.181 (0.024, 0.247)
0.066 (0.003, 0.088)
0.258 (0.132, 0.305)
0.064 (0.001, 0.091)
q3,2
0.034 (0.001, 0.046)
0.320 (0.061, 0.417)
0.018 (0.001, 0.024)
0.214 (0.057, 0.264)
q3,3
0.603 (0.360, 0.685)
0.449 (0.155, 0.565)
0.589 (0.410, 0.654)
0.534 (0.280, 0.615)
Table A7. Switch constrained.
elk-115
elk-163
elk-287
elk-363
a1
1.525 (1.272, 1.790)
3.630 (2.475, 5.023)
3.455 (2.824, 4.509)
2.262 (1.715, 3.005)
a2
0.046 (0.004, 0.171)
0.034 (0.009, 0.049)
0.019 (0.028, 0.208)
0.034 (0.009, 0.049)
b1
0.883 (0.769, 0.996)
0.829 (0.687, 0.976)
1.034 (0.896, 1.195)
1.012 (0.865, 1.183)
b2
1.771 (1.084, 2.687)
1.645 (1.391, 2.105)
1.903 (1.015, 1.764)
1.911 (1.609, 2.429)
1
3.190 (-3.116, 3.138)
-0.607 (-3.126, 3.126)
2.613 (-3.011, 3.060)
1.751 (-3.115, 3.130)
2
1.101 (-2.057, 2.575)
0.256 (-3.115, 3.117)
0.027 (-0.228, 0.300)
-0.455 (-1.123, 0.134)
1
0.310 (0.207, 0.414)
0.248 (0.114, 0.373)
0.209 (0.106, 0.339)
0.234 (0.116, 0.345)
2
0.292 (0.018, 0.642)
0.265 (0.017, 0.545)
0.616 (0.406, 0.759)
0.426 (0.126, 0.673)
q1,2
0.047 (0.019, 0.093)
0.157 (0.087, 0.238)
0.099 (0.051, 0.161)
0.115 (0.057, 0.185)
q2,1
0.421 (0.204, 0.666)
0.616 (0.427, 0.790)
0.372 (0.184, 0.567)
0.635 (0.422, 0.820)