Ecological Archives E085-115-A1

Kris Verheyen, Mark Vellend, Hans Van Calster, George Peterken, and Martin Hermy. 2004. Metapopulation dynamics in changing landscapes: a new spatially realistic model for forest plants. Ecology 85:3302–3312.

Appendix A. Results of logistic regression analyses and fitting the incidence function model for all species.

TABLE A1. Results of multiple logistic regression models, parameter estimates of the modified IFM, and median values of the estimated extinction (E) and colonization (C) rates for each species. The species in bold were used in model simulations. See text for more details.

Species^†	PO^‡	Logistic Regression Model					Modified IFM
		R²^§	-Age	-Conn	-Area	-h						Median (E)	Median (C)

Arrhenatherum elatius	46	0.078
Stellaria media	50.3	0.037
Angelica sylvestris	34.7	0.488				-2.267	317.890	0.011	0.000	0.284	0.18	0.044	0.020
Brachypodium sylvaticum	55.8	0.258				-1.719	951.940	0.008	0.000	0.136	0.09	0.008	0.014
Dryopteris carthusiana	22.8	0.443				-1.733	1.435	0.001	0.000	0.477	0.35	0.139	0.020
Dryopteris dilatata	49.1	0.571				-2.078	1.642	0.001	0.000	0.292	0.16	0.069	0.070
Dryopteris filix-mas	50.9	0.437				-1.565	0.002	0.000	0.002	0.299	0.22	0.042	0.048
Filipendula ulmaria	50.3	0.438				-1.78	0.183	0.006	0.003	0.439	0.38	0.090	0.105
Holcus lanatus	49.1	0.351				-1.537	0.002	0.005	0.025	0.281	0.28	0.081	0.091
Holcus mollis	32.8	0.566				-2.191	408.830	0.003	0.000	0.479	0.25	0.055	0.015
Juncus effusus	32.2	0.511				-1.876	0.119	0.004	0.000	0.716	0.48	0.054	0.014
Lamium album	27.9	0.101				-0.575	1.872	0.000	0.014	0.341	0.34	0.286	0.097
Lonicera periclymenum	53.1	0.633				-2.405	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.243	0.10	0.026	0.047
Rubus idaeus	20.4	0.108				-0.896	0.008	0.000	0.004	0.235	0.32	0.024	0.006
Veronica chamaedrys	67.5	0.231				-1.573	0.014	0.000	0.004	0.354	0.30	0.029	0.082
Arctium minus	57.4	0.299			0.837	-3.268	995.360	0.000	0.000	0.502	0.21	0.045	0.064
Silene dioica	46	0.158			1.133	-1.261	0.005	0.000	0.001	0.517	0.33	0.007	0.008
Rumex obtusifolius	46.9	0.101			1.156	-0.444	0.268	0.020	0.127	1.506	1.27	1.000	0.728
Violo odorata	35	0.424			1.159	-2.018	0.387	0.003	0.001	0.437	0.22	0.086	0.032
Tamus communis	39.6	0.135			1.182	-0.826	0.006	0.012	0.001	0.772	0.56	0.005	0.005
Lapsana communis	43.9	0.11			1.201	-0.387	0.015	0.014	0.006	0.609	1.02	0.021	0.018
Myosotis arvensis	34.7	0.176			1.266		0.000	0.000	0.271	0.630	1.25	0.233	0.109
Moehringia trinervia	67.5	0.209			1.27	-1.402	0.065	0.005	0.013	0.584	0.39	0.096	0.272
Geum urbanum	75.5	0.19			1.271	-1.255	0.013	0.003	0.000	0.706	0.38	0.003	0.019
Cirsium vulgare	53.1	0.189			1.304		0.001	0.002	0.119	0.578	0.92	0.133	0.163
Rubus caesius	26.1	0.214			1.534	-1.082	0.112	0.017	0.000	0.754	0.39	0.016	0.006
Stachys sylvatica	79.1	0.191			1.603	-1.016	0.021	0.011	0.001	0.818	0.74	0.007	0.046
Ajuga reptans	40.5	0.423			1.629	-0.647	0.000	0.008	0.001	1.701	1.38	0.004	0.006
*Taraxacum officinale aggr.*	31.6	0.204			1.646	-0.79	0.073	0.022	0.144	1.200	0.64	0.891	0.216
Epilobium montanum	33.4	0.43			1.655	-1.922	0.001	0.005	0.056	0.722	0.41	0.086	0.040
Viola riviniana	48.5	0.482			1.657	-1.17	0.202	0.001	0.000	0.657	0.33	0.014	0.016
Rumex sanguineus	52.5	0.22			1.765	-0.813	0.053	0.016	0.016	0.825	0.78	0.096	0.127
Athyrium filix-femina	20.1	0.465			1.798	-2.88	1.038	0.003	0.000	0.770	0.24	0.102	0.013
Scrophularia auriculata	21.3	0.181			1.822	-1.23	5.165	0.006	0.000	0.966	0.55	0.410	0.083
Chamerion angustifolium	66.9	0.492			1.917	-1.451	0.003	0.008	0.008	0.824	0.67	0.034	0.122
Galium palustre	26.7	0.613			2.137	-1.449	0.688	0.002	0.000	1.084	0.50	0.143	0.012
Ranunculus repens	68.4	0.354			2.221		0.001	0.000	0.130	1.356	1.81	0.115	0.354
Epilobium hirsutum	47.5	0.31			2.319	-1.074	0.036	0.011	0.001	1.218	0.84	0.026	0.027
Juncus conglomeratus	22.2	0.533		0.458	2.99		0.001	0.018	0.582	1.251	7.21	0.254	0.028
Bryonia dioica	20.7	0.172		0.484	1.292	-0.971	0.029	0.012	0.008	0.569	0.64	0.033	0.008
Festuca gigantea	35.3	0.173		0.488	1.231	-0.716	0.009	0.015	0.005	0.620	0.66	0.013	0.008
Circaea lutetiana	40.8	0.382		0.493	1.92	-2.057	0.002	0.007	0.004	0.942	0.47	0.018	0.014
Deschampsia cespitosa	48.8	0.489		0.499	1.172	-0.778	0.001	0.015	0.034	0.756	2.32	0.034	0.038
Hypericum hirsutum	21.6	0.557		0.737	2.471	-4.529	23.851	0.019	0.000	1.236	0.21	0.130	0.008
Potentilla erecta	22.8	0.683		1.159	4.014		0.426	0.006	0.000	1.707	0.80	0.794	0.016
Arum maculatum	58	0.421	0.797	0.755	1.463	-1.564	0.018	0.001	0.000	1.404	0.37	0.001	0.007
*Mercurialis perennis*	32.5	0.562	1.108	1.269	1.567	-1.663	0.061	0.047	0.000	1.527	0.51	0.001	0.002
Stellaria holostea	35	0.522	0.511	1.031	1.282	-1.167	0.006	0.034	0.000	1.175	0.55	0.002	0.002
Alliaria petiolata	27.9	0.289	0.673	0.643		-1.278	0.496	0.005	0.000	0.666	0.33	0.011	0.005
Anemone nemorosa	24.2	0.707	3.278	0.364			0.000	0.014	0.001	2.505	6.20	0.000	0.002
Bromopsis ramosa	33.1	0.16	0.485	0.501			0.003	0.015	0.003	0.495	0.81	0.005	0.004
Carex sylvatica	30.7	0.554	0.653	0.605		-2.549	0.169	0.012	0.000	0.680	0.20	0.007	0.003
Hyacinthoides non-scripta	34.7	0.441	1.543	0.442			8.166	0.012	0.000	0.860	0.20	0.000	0.003
Myosotis sylvatica	23.6	0.256	0.804	0.606			845.500	0.008	0.000	0.347	0.15	0.005	0.002
Primula vulgaris	27.3	0.587	1.203	0.495		-2.253	0.029	0.013	0.000	1.048	0.43	0.003	0.002
Anthriscus sylvestris	55.2	0.281	0.659			-0.916	0.026	0.000	0.000	0.575	0.33	0.004	0.009
Geranium robertianum	62.6	0.169	0.409			-0.977	0.010	0.001	0.003	0.110	0.11	0.007	0.018
Geum rivale	28.2	0.528	1.027			-1.867	0.005	0.003	0.000	1.218	0.52	0.007	0.004
Hedera helix	62.6	0.21	0.437			-1.144	0.748	0.002	0.001	0.257	0.18	0.007	0.017
Pteridium aquilinum	25.8	0.474	0.506			-2.119	0.024	0.000	0.002	0.689	0.76	0.324	0.067
Ranunculus ficaria	46	0.141	0.696				0.003	0.000	0.000	0.298	0.12	0.000	0.004
Scrophularia nodosa	26.4	0.502	1.174		1.785		0.001	0.020	0.005	1.600	1.06	0.004	0.002
Primula veris	21.6	0.336	-0.645		1.254	-5.226	926.210	0.004	0.000	0.500	0.35	0.137	0.030

^† Nomenclature is according to Hill et al. 1999.

^‡ PO: Patch occupancy.

^§ Nagelkerke R² (Hosmer and Lemeshow 1989).

LITERATURE CITED

Hill, M.O., J. O. Mountford, D. B. Roy, and R. G. H. Bunce.1999. Ellenberg's indicator values for British plants. Institute for Terrestrial Ecology, Huntingdon, United Kingdom.

Hosmer, D.W., and S. Lemeshow.1989. Applied logistic regression. John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, USA.

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