Appendix F. Posterior median parameter estimates and 95% credible intervals for incidence probabilities and covariate effects on incidence (Table F1), infection probabilities (Table F2), detection probabilities (Table F3), and covariate effects on survival (Table F4).
TABLE F1. Incidence probabilities.
| Fungus | Parameter |
Median estimate (95% credible intervals) |
| COLA | intercept | -0.33 (-1.10, -0.02) |
| COLA | soil moisture coefficient | 17.77 (11.69, 19.86) |
| CYLI | intercept | -0.93 (-2.19, -0.08) |
| CYLI | soil moisture coefficient | 15.26 (6.00, 19.73) |
| PHMA | intercept | -2.24 (-4.07, -0.42) |
| PHMA | soil moisture coefficient | 11.15 (0.79, 19.47) |
| PHMB | intercept | -1.95 (-3.29, -0.31) |
| PHMB | soil moisture coefficient | 14.69 (3.39, 19.69) |
| PHMD | intercept | -1.91 (-3.24, -0.26) |
| PHMD | soil moisture coefficient | 15.75 (4.11, 19.77) |
TABLE F2. Infection probabilities.
| Host | Fungus |
Median infection probability (95% credible intervals) |
| A. barbatum | COLA | 0.72 (0.55, 0.86) |
| A. barbatum | CYLI | 0.28 (0.14, 0.48) |
| A. barbatum | PHMA | 0.18 (0.02, 0.64) |
| A. barbatum | PHMB | 0.15 (0.03, 0.38) |
| A. barbatum | PHMD | 0.22 (0.06, 0.55) |
| D. virginiana | COLA | 0.34 (0.17, 0.56) |
| D. virginiana | CYLI | 0.43 (0.21, 0.70) |
| D. virginiana | PHMA | 0.15 (0.02, 0.45) |
| D. virginiana | PHMB | 0.17 (0.04, 0.40) |
| D. virginiana | PHMD | 0.42 (0.18, 0.74) |
| L. styraciflua | COLA | 0.24 (0.13, 0.38) |
| L. styraciflua | CYLI | 0.23 (0.12, 0.38) |
| L. styraciflua | PHMA | 0.22 (0.06, 0.51) |
| L. styraciflua | PHMB | 0.49 (0.29, 0.71) |
| L. styraciflua | PHMD | 0.16 (0.06, 0.34) |
| N. sylvatica | COLA | 0.39 (0.26, 0.55) |
| N. sylvatica | CYLI | 0.32 (0.17, 0.51) |
| N. sylvatica | PHMA | 0.15 (0.03, 0.41) |
| N. sylvatica | PHMB | 0.23 (0.09, 0.46) |
| N. sylvatica | PHMD | 0.14 (0.04, 0.31) |
| P. taeda | COLA | 0.31 (0.18, 0.47) |
| P. taeda | CYLI | 0.30 (0.16, 0.48) |
| P. taeda | PHMA | 0.09 (0.01, 0.32) |
| P. taeda | PHMB | 0.06 (0.01, 0.20) |
| P. taeda | PHMD | 0.09 (0.02, 0.25) |
TABLE F3. Detection probabilities.
| Fungus |
Median detection probability (95% credible intervals) |
| COLA | 0.40 (0.37, 0.43) |
| CYLI | 0.40 (0.37, 0.44) |
| PHMA | 0.46 (0.42, 0.50) |
| PHMB | 0.44 (0.41, 0.48) |
| PHMD | 0.42 (0.38, 0.45) |
TABLE F4. Covariate effects on seedling survival.
| Host | Parameter |
Median estimate (95% credible intervals) |
| A. barbatum | light coefficient | 1.45 (0.10, 4.32) |
| D. virginiana | light coefficient | 1.54 (0.08, 4.69) |
| L. styraciflua | light coefficient | 2.15 (0.19, 5.31) |
| N. sylvatica | light coefficient | 1.63 (0.10, 4.69) |
| P. taeda | light coefficient | 4.11 (0.77, 7.64) |
| A. barbatum | soil moisture coefficient | 1.99 (0.15, 5.26) |
| D. virginiana | soil moisture coefficient | 1.14 (0.06, 3.85) |
| L. styraciflua | soil moisture coefficient | 1.69 (0.11, 4.83) |
| N. sylvatica | soil moisture coefficient | 1.56 (0.10, 4.58) |
| P. taeda | soil moisture coefficient | 1.40 (0.05, 4.61) |